[Golden Morning News] The Fed reiterated that the gradual rate hike will rise again and fall back below 1310.

The US dollar index rebounded, hitting a high of 92.84, hitting a new high for the year and closing for three consecutive trading days.

The Fed did not move, in line with market expectations. The statement reiterated that the economic environment guarantees a gradual rate hike. It believes that inflation is expected to be close to 2% of the Fed's medium-term "symmetric" target level, but deletes the statement that "the economic outlook has strengthened in recent months." The market interprets it as a little dovish.

International spot gold Wednesday (May 2) Asian market opened at 1304.10 US dollars / ounce in early trading, the lowest test 1303.81 US dollars / ounce, the highest rose to 1313.41 US dollars / ounce, and finally closed at 1305.30 US dollars / ounce, up 1.7 US dollars, or 0.13 %.

The world's largest gold ETF--SPDR Gold Trust position remained unchanged on Wednesday, with a current position of 866.77 tons.

The Fed is still moving in June, and the interest rate hike is expected to be close to the target.

US time on May 2, Japan, the Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Committee FOMC meeting decided to maintain policy interest rates unchanged, the federal funds target interest rate range is still 1.50% -1.75%, in line with market expectations.

The Fed meeting statement reiterated that the economic environment guarantees a gradual rate hike and believes that inflation is expected to be close to 2% of the Fed's medium-term "symmetric" target level. The Fed statement also deleted the statement that "the economic outlook has strengthened in recent months." The Wall Street Journal, commented that the statement shows that the Fed will raise interest rates as scheduled in June.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch pointed out that the interest rate market interpreted the Fed meeting statement as a slightly dovish. The market is focused on the Fed's mention that the inflation target is "symmetric", which means that the Fed may tolerate inflation above 2%.

After the Fed statement was announced, spot gold had a short-term rise and US stocks also rose. But the good times did not last long, gold fell back below $1310 after the high, and US stocks fell while the US dollar index rebounded. The US dollar index rose for three consecutive days, hitting a high of 92.84 on Wednesday, hitting a new high for the year.

From a technical point of view, the gold price is still in the key areas of 1300-1305, including the 200-day moving average and the Fibonacci retracement level. If the gold price is successfully stabilized above 1,300 US dollars/ounce, it will rebound. However, if the 1300 mark falls, it may look further at the 50-week moving average of $1,295.

On the upside, if it returns above $1310, the next resistance will look towards the 200-day moving average at $1,320, with further resistance at $1330 and $1,340. The breakout is seen at the high of $1,366 during the year.

European Commission President Juncker: The United States should permanently and unconditionally exempt EU metal tariffs

The issue of Trump steel aluminum tariffs has recently been raging. European Commission President Juncker said on Wednesday that the EU will not accept the threat in exchange for a permanent exemption from the United States to impose steel and aluminum tariffs. Earlier, Trump had extended the EU's temporary tariff exemption to June 1.

Juncker said: "I want to reiterate my appeal to make this exemption unconditional and permanent. We believe that US measures cannot be justified on the grounds of national security."

In addition, a high-level delegation headed by US Finance Minister Nuchin will conduct trade negotiations with China on Thursday, and the market is always concerned about the progress of the negotiations.

The tension in Iran has fueled the upward oil price

On Wednesday, the US Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) announced that EIA crude oil inventories surged more than 6 million barrels last week, the largest single-week increase since January this year, and crude oil production reached a record high of over 10.61 million barrels per day. After the data was released, US oil and oil oil fell short-term, but oil prices rose rapidly.

Some analysts believe that the situation in Iran is tense and the market expects that the United States will withdraw from the Iranian nuclear agreement, which may boost the international oil price shock to the $75 mark.

WTI June crude oil futures closed up 1.01% on Wednesday at $67.93 a barrel. Brent crude oil futures closed up 0.31% at $73.36 a barrel.

Fundamental positive factors:

1. On Wednesday (May 2), the US ADP employment data for April increased by 204,000, a higher than expected increase of 200,000, but the increase in employment was the smallest since November last year, and the previous value was revised down to An increase of 228,000 people.

2. The US April ISM manufacturing PMI 57.3 announced on Tuesday (May 1) was lower than the previous value of 59.3 and the expected 58.3, which was the lowest since July 2017. The association said the tariff terms for the US 232 and 301 investigations. Very worrying. US monthly construction spending in March was -1.7%, lower than the previous value of 0.1% and expected 0.5%.

Fundamental negative factors:

1. The final US Markit manufacturing PMI released on Tuesday (May 1st) was 56.5, which was in line with expectations and maintained at a high level since September 2014, indicating that the US economy started to be stable in the second quarter. A positive signal was released for GDP growth.

2. Data released on Monday (April 30) showed that the US core PCE price index was 1.9% in March, which was higher than the previous value. The US monthly personal expenditure rate was 0.4% in March, which was higher than the previous value. .

Outlook outlook

1. Alex Thorndike, senior precious metals trader at MKS (Switzerland) SA, said the region from $1,300 to $1,305 is “critical” for gold because it includes a 200-day moving average and 50% Fibonacci back Withdrawal and psychological importance of $ 1,300 / ounce. He said, "If we break above and close below $1,300, it is likely to return to the $1,263-$65 position. That is to say, this may be the ideal place to observe the metal reversal. We have touched this three times since January. The region ($1300-1307), and now has completed a multi-month correction phase, we can go up. The bottom line is that how the regional price behavior in this $1,300 to $1310 development may be important... ”

2. Information website Economies.com said in a report released on Wednesday (May 2) that gold is heading towards $1316.48 per ounce. This level and the next key support at $1301.20 per ounce represent the direction of gold prices. The direction of the gold price in these two positions will determine the next direction. Therefore, we continue to remain neutral until we see a clear signal of the next trend.

3. MKS (Switzerland) said in a report released on Tuesday (May 1) that as gold prices continue to fall, the 200-day moving average and the psychologically important $1,300 mark will become the main support areas for precious metals. On the other hand, MKS said that gold should encounter resistance at the 100-day moving average. The price is now around $1,322.

Focus on Thursday

19:30 Number of layoffs in US challenger companies in April (10,000)

20:30 Number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the United States until April 28 (ten thousand people)

US March trade account (100 million US dollars)

21:45 US April Markit service industry PMI final value

US to April 29th week, Bloomberg Consumer Confidence Index

22:00 US April ISM non-manufacturing PMI

US March factory order monthly rate

22:30 EIA natural gas inventory (100 million cubic feet) from the US to the week of April 27

(Editor: Wang Zhiqiang HF013)