The overall development trend of the textile industry in 2015

In 2015, China's textile industry as a whole showed a trend of “slowing down and stabilizing” and the quality and efficiency indicators of the industry were stable. The industrial added value of the industry increased by 6.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate was higher than the national industrial growth rate, but the scale of exports declined, which was a 4.88 year-on-year decrease. %.

On January 27, the China Textile Industry Federation's 2015 Economic Operation Analysis Conference was held in Beijing. Wang Tiankai, President of China Textile Industry Federation, former President Du Yuzhou, Vice President and Secretary General Gao Yong, Vice President Sun Ruizhe, Xu Wenying, Yang Jichao, Xia Lingmin, Party Committee Deputy ** Chen Weikang, Discipline Inspection Commission** Wang Jiuxin, etc. Professional associations and principals from various departments attended the meeting.

Industry Status

Investment: a year-on-year increase of 14.96%

In 2015, the scale of industrial investment continued to expand, and new projects started to grow faster. In 2015, China's textile industry completed a fixed asset investment of 1,119.321 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.96%, and the growth rate was 1.59 percentage points higher than the previous year. The new construction projects increased 18.34% year-on-year, which was 18.86 percentage points higher than the previous year.

From the perspective of regional investment structure, investment in the eastern and western regions has increased compared to the previous year, while investment in the central region has decreased compared with the previous year. Investment growth in the eastern region increased by 3.54 percentage points over the previous year; investment growth in the central region fell by 1.03 percentage points over the previous year; investment growth in the western region decreased by 2.38 percentage points from the previous year.

Exports: a decrease of 4.88% year-on-year

In 2015, the scale of industrial exports has declined, and the volume of exports has dropped. In 2015, China’s textile and apparel exports amounted to US$283.85 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.88%. From January to November 2015, China's textile and apparel export prices decreased by 1.43%, while exports decreased by 4.3%.

From the perspective of export structure, textiles and clothing have declined. From January to November 2015, China’s textile export amounted to US$104.974 billion, which was a decrease of 2.53% year-on-year; apparel exports amounted to US$158.629 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 7.64%.

It should be noted that from January to November 2015, the United States, the European Union, Japan, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are key textile and apparel export markets in China, accounting for 55.95% of China's total exports to the world, an increase of 0.81 percentage points over 2014. At the same time, from January to November 2015, the EU and Japan markets experienced a significant decline, accounting for 1.11 percentage points and 0.48 percentage points of China’s textile and apparel export respectively compared to 2014.

Domestic sales: retail sales rose 9.8% year-on-year

In 2015, the growth rate of domestic sales in the industry slowed down steadily. In 2015, the retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and needles above designated size increased by 9.8% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points from the previous year, which was lower than the growth rate of retail sales of consumer goods over the same period, and the cumulative growth rate showed a monthly declining trend in the second half of the year.

It is worth mentioning that in 2015, the industry e-commerce channels maintained a relatively rapid growth. In 2015, the retail sales of online wearable goods nationwide increased by 21.4% year-on-year, but continued to decline during the year of 2015.

Profit: a year-on-year increase of 6.83%

In 2015, the scale of profits of enterprises above designated size continued to expand, and the growth rate was stable. From January to November 2015, China’s textile industry realized a total profit of 332.162 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.83%.

Judging from the various aspects of the industry chain, the profits of the chemical fiber industry and industrial industries have increased rapidly. The chemical fiber industry increased by 24.13% year-on-year, and the industrial industry increased by 14.44% year-on-year.

At the same time, the profit rate of the whole industry in 2015 increased by 0.1 percentage points over the same period of the previous year, and the profit rate of cotton, wool, and apparel industries in January-November 2015 decreased slightly from the same period of last year.

Analysis and prediction

Raw materials: The situation is complex and changeable

In 2016, the fundamentals of the oversupply of the global cotton market remained unchanged. Inventories continue to expand and, with the appreciation of the US dollar, international cotton prices will be at relatively low levels compared to 2015. Although the direct supplementation measures for cotton planting have been implemented, the subsequent impact of the preliminary interim storage and storage policy has not yet been eliminated, and the quality of domestic cotton has dropped seriously. The impact of policies such as the coordination of import quotas, the release of reserve cotton, and the reform of the cotton management system should not be delayed.

In 2016, international oil prices will continue to face downward pressure in the short term, and WTI** price fluctuation ranges from 26 to 31 US dollars per barrel. The low price of oil is a strong support for the cost of raw materials for chemical fiber companies.

Labor: Employment prices continue to rise

In 2016, affected by the slowdown of macroeconomic growth and the narrowing of price increases, the increase in domestic labor employment prices may have slowed down compared to 2015, but the pressure on the cost is hard to reduce due to the influence of popular employment preferences.

In addition, due to the slowdown in industrial growth and weak demand, domestic fuel prices will continue to be low, which will help ease the pressure on business costs.

Export: It is expected to achieve positive growth

The global economy will recover slowly with a slight increase in growth rate. Coupled with the lower base of negative export growth in 2015, exports of the textile industry are expected to gradually stabilize and achieve positive growth in 2016. However, structural differences among different markets are relatively large.

It is worth mentioning that the meeting held that China's cotton and knitted garments have been shown to speed up the phenomenon of foreign migration. Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam continue to erode China's international market share, and in the short term, they cannot constitute a ** for China's international market share, but look at long-term orders and The impact of capacity shift cannot be ignored.

Domestic Sales: Maintaining Steady Growth

In 2016, the domestic market needs to maintain a steady growth, and the upgrading of consumption structure and the innovation of retail channels are obvious. However, due to the slowdown in the growth of the macro economy, the growth in the total amount of clothing consumption is unlikely to increase significantly. It is expected that the retail sales of clothing products above the designated size will be slightly higher than 2015. In addition, the destocking of real estate will be conducive to the development of the home textile industry, and the advancement of the “Belt and Road” interconnection will also drive the development of the industrial textile industry.

Production and Benefits: Index Growth Expected to Increase

In 2016, the industry's exports are expected to achieve positive growth, domestic demand will also maintain steady growth, and can support the industry's operations to remain basically stable. Although market competition continues to intensify, the cost of labor and other factors continue to increase, and the structural overcapacity of chemical fibers remains unresolved, effective implementation of policies and measures to reduce costs and expand effective supply will improve the production and profitability of the textile industry. It is expected that the indicators such as main business income and total profit will increase at a faster rate than in 2015.