The dollar has to rebound? The euro, the pound, the yen are falling...

FX168 Financial News (Hong Kong) News On Tuesday (August 22), the US dollar index climbed and the highest rebounded to an intraday high of 93.43, which is expected to end the decline in two consecutive trading days.

(US dollar index 60 minutes chart source: FX168 financial network

The latest position data shows that speculators cut the dollar short position. HSBC wrote that it is expected that short-term dollar short positions will continue to decrease.

The bank said that the Fed will not decide whether to raise interest rates until December, and there is no new catalyst in the financial sector. The US budget and debt ceiling have not yet affected the US dollar, so the US dollar is expected in the next few weeks. Will grow moderately.

In addition, HSBC said that the US dollar suspended its depreciation trend in August, indicating a decrease in short positions; the US dollar index is expected to rise above 95.25 on the 50-day moving average.

As the dollar rebounded, the euro, the yen, and the pound were all falling... EUR/USD fell below the 21-day moving average at 1.1773, with support at 1.1731; GBP/USD fell to an intraday low of 1.2867, and support looked at 1.2850!

About the yen: According to Bloomberg quoted traders, the USD/JPY expanded its gains to a maximum of 109.40 and the sell order was at 109.50. This is also the first increase since the USD/JPY, and has fallen by 1.5% in the previous four days.

Foreign media said that European traders said that investors bought dollars for profit-taking or bargain hunting. Traders also said that there is USD/JPY selling at 109.50 and more selling at 109.75-80.

"In view of the lack of key data releases and the Jackson Hole meeting to be held later this week, the exchange rate is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range," said Rodrigo Catril, currency strategist at National Australia Bank in Sydney.

“The USDJPY continues to stay near the key support level of 108.13 yen, but we feel that this level will not fall this week. We think that Yellen’s attendance at the Jackson Hole Conference is a potential for US dollar and US Treasury yields. Upside risks."

About the euro: According to Bloomberg, since the euro/dollar hit a new high of more than two years at 1.910, the recent euro's rally has stalled because the market expects ECB President Draghi may worry that the euro's appreciation will weigh on the European economy.

So far this year, the euro/dollar has risen by 12%, the first time since trading began in 1999. Draghi will deliver a speech at the annual meeting of the global bank of the Jackson Hole Conference this week. Currently, many developed country central banks are considering withdrawing from the easing policy that has lasted for several years.

Viraj Patel, a research analyst at ING Group, pointed out that at the Jackson Hole meeting, Draghi expects to speak on Friday after the end of European trading hours. Some market participants are somewhat worried that Draghi may be surprisingly immersed in the euro's short position.

Viraj Patel also said that the current phenomenon of “buying rumors and selling in facts” may bring more risks, and the euro is expected to rise before the global central bank annual meeting begins.

Draghi’s statement is unlikely to exceed the market’s expectation that the central bank will reduce QE, and it is expected that it may choose to reiterate the concerns that the European Central Bank’s monetary policy normalization may cause on the money market.

After the meeting, the euro/dollar may fall, even if the dollar is weak, it may not be pushed too high.

About the pound: FXStreet analysts pointed out that technically, the exchange rate maintained a range volatility near the 100-day moving average, still in the 1.2920-1.2830 range, traders will wait for the exchange rate to break through the direction.

If you break the resistance of 1.2920-30 (the 50% retracement of the 1.2589-1.3269 rally and the 50-day moving average), it will lead to short covering and the exchange rate will rise to the psychological level of 1.30. Afterwards or further testing the 1.3030-35 level resistance.

The support is located at 1.2850-40 (61.8% retracement). If the exchange rate is more likely to fall below 1.2800 and test 1.2775, it will eventually fall to 1.2720. The very important 200-day moving average is located in the 1.2640 area.

Proofreading: JOE