Sheng Wenbing: Gold breaks down and welcomes the global central bank's annual meeting. The dollar is still consolidating.

The US dollar index continued to rise and closed up to the 94.75 area in the Xiaoyang line. In the middle of the Asian session, the US dollar continued to rise from the 94.50 line. After one hour of standing on the MA60, the bulls continued to attack, but failed to break through the 94.70 line. In the afternoon, it suffered short-selling pressure and triggered a rapid retracement. After the US dollar bottomed out to the 94.50 area, it stabilized. The bulls re-entered the market and supported the one-hour MA120 support, pushing the US dollar to rebound quickly. After 1 hour of step-by-step pull-up, after breaking through the 94.70 area, continue to attack, and after challenging the 94.90 line in the evening, the short-term exhaustion retreats and seeks support again. At present, the double-bottom rebound in 4 hours remains good, and today's low-end ideas continue.

The US June FHFA house price index was 0.2%, expected 0.3%, and the previous value was 0.2%. The US June FHFA house price index was 5.6% year-on-year, with a previous value of 5.6%.

The total number of existing home sales in the United States in July was 5.39 million, with an expected 5.51 million and a previous value of 5.57 million. The total number of existing home sales in the United States in July was -3.2%, expected -1.1%, and the previous value was 1.1%.

After four consecutive months of record growth, the US July home sales data was less than expected, mainly due to limited stocks in existing homes, buyers do not have much choice, but housing prices are still rising, indicating that the real estate market remains Strong.

Gold fell sharply yesterday and fell below the 1330 mark. The Yinxian line fell to the 1325 line, and the author's short strategy. Yesterday in the Asian session, gold continued to be weak around the 1337 line, the intraday rebound was weak, the height was limited, the 4-hour running center gradually shifted downwards, and the intraday upside 1340 was unable to break through, indicating that gold began to weaken gradually, and the European session was short-term pull. Gao still failed to break through the 1340 suppression, showing that the pressure on the top is heavy. In the US session, the bulls finally gave up the resistance, and the gold plummeted, breaking through the important support position of 1330 and establishing the downside. At present, the Changyin line is broken and the high-altitude idea can be continued.

US 10-year benchmark Treasury prices fell 2/32, and its yield rose 0.5 basis points to 1.558%. The 30-year US Treasury price fell by 6/32, and its yield rose by 0.9 basis points to 2.242%. The US dollar bond price was flat for the biennium, and its yield rose by 1.6 basis points to 0.766%. The five-year US bond price fell by 1/32, and its yield rose by 0.2 basis points to 1.143%.

The euro continued to weaken all day, and the negative line fell to the 1.1260 area. The author was short-selling. Yesterday, during the Asian session, the euro continued its 4-hour bearish downtrend after constructing a 4-hour double-top. In the morning, it first fell below the 1.1300 mark and the MA30, and once again opened the downside, followed by 4 hours of continuous negative, long no-resistance, and 1 hour of failure. The MA60 and MA120 showed that the 4 hours were still in the short-selling trend, and the short-term acceleration of the 1-hour short-term period in the European trading session fell below the 1.1290 support. The US session continued to be weak. After accelerating to the 1.1245 area in the evening, the short-term stabilized under the support of the 4-hour MA60, and then entered the weak consolidation, and today the high-altitude idea can be continued.

Germany's second quarter quarterly adjusted GDP quarter-on-quarter value of 0.4%, expected 0.4%, initial value of 0.4%. Germany's second-quarter working day adjusted GDP after the final value of 1.8%, expected 1.8%, initial value of 1.8%. Germany's second quarter quarterly GDP growth of 3.1%, the expected 3.1%, the initial value of 3.1%.

A spokesperson for the Portuguese Ministry of Finance and the European Commission said that the EU and Portugal have reached a preliminary agreement to inject up to 2.7 billion euros (US$3.05 billion) into the Portuguese Savings Head Office, thus taking an important step towards clearing Portugal's troublesome banking problems.

According to data from the European Central Bank, the euro zone's first-quarter profit fell 20%.

The pound continued its upside yesterday and was pushed up by the Xiaoyang line to the 1.3230 line, indicating that the pound has recently begun to appear independent and strong, and is poised to get rid of the weak pattern after the Brexit. Yesterday, during the Asian session, the British pound rushed to the 1.3200 line and then retraced. After one hour of continuous exploration, the retracement space was small. After the midday continued to stabilize with the 1.3180 line, the disk showed a resistance downside, indicating that the bulls were back-attacking. During the European session, with the help of the weaker dollar, the bulls quickly pulled up the pound. After an hour of easy creation of a new high, the pound rallied in the US session, and rushed back to the 1.3270 line in the evening. After 4 hours of continuous high, it is objectively necessary to retreat and digest the profit-making disk. Today, the idea of ​​high-altitude is dominant.

Affected by the Brexit vote in the UK, 5.7 billion pounds of funds flowed out of the UK funds in July, the largest monthly loss of funds in the past three years; the net outflow of equity funds was 4.7 billion pounds, while the net outflow of real estate funds was 430 million pounds. Suspend customer redemption.

Owen Smith, the leader of the British Labor Party, will try to get Congress to block the Brexit negotiations unless the government promises to hold a second referendum or hold a general election. Some voters were deceived before they supported the Brexit, and there were signs that the UK economy might slow down after the referendum, so they may reconsider their position.

In the UK, the number of BBA housing purchases in July was 37,662, the lowest since January 2015; the expected 38,000, the former value of 40,103 was revised to 39,763.

Crude oil retraced continuously throughout the day yesterday, and once again, the Yinxian line fell to 46.80, indicating that the short position still dominates the market. Yesterday, the oil market weakened again after the opening of the Asian session, and the MA60 was continuously lost in 1 hour. The pressure on the short-term retracement was heavy. In the afternoon, it was weakly organized around the 47.20 area, and the rebound was weak. After the Asian market reached the bottom line of 47.00, it entered a weak consolidation. In the middle of the US crude oil data in the evening, the author had a low layout in advance, and the profit was quickly released before the data. After the data, the crude oil suffered a setback, and it fell again in an hour. It broke through the support of 47.00 mark, and the innovation in the evening was as low as 46.45. Today, it is mainly based on high-altitude ideas.

Iraqi Deputy Minister of Petroleum Nima: Iraq will participate in the OPEC meeting in Algeria in September and will support fair crude oil prices in the event of oversupply.

In the US on August 22, EIA crude oil inventories +25.01 million barrels, expected -1 million barrels, the previous value of -258,000 barrels. In the US on August 22, EIA gasoline stocks were +3.6 million barrels, expected to be -1.5 million barrels, and the previous value was -72.24 million barrels.

In the US on August 22, EIA refined oil stocks were +122,000 barrels, a seasonal high since 2011, with an expected +500,000 barrels and a previous value of 1.939 million barrels. In the US on August 22, the EIA Cushing area crude oil inventory +375,000 barrels, the largest increase since the week of August 4, expected -400,000 barrels, the previous value of -724,000 barrels

[Overnight market review]

European stock market: Germany's DAX index closed up 31.62 points on August 24 (Wednesday), or 0.30%, to 10624.50 points. The UK's FTSE 100 index closed at 33.51 points on August 24 (Wednesday), down 0.49% to 6835.00 points. The French CAC40 index closed at 18.35 points (Wednesday) on August 24 (Wednesday), up 0.42% to 4439.80 points; Spain's IBEX35 index closed up 70.10 points on August 24 (Wednesday), or 0.82%, to 8651.00 points; Italy FTSE The index closed at 106.95 points (Wednesday) on August 24th, an increase of 0.64%, to 16885.00 points.

US stock market: The S&P 500 index closed down 11.46 points (Wednesday) on August 24 (Wednesday), down 0.52% to 2175.44 points. The Nasdaq index closed down 42.38 points on August 24 (Wednesday), down 0.81% to 5157.69 Point; the Dow Jones index closed at 65.82 points (Wednesday) on August 24, down 0.35%, to 18,481.48 points.

Domestic market: Shanghai Gold Exchange gold T+D Wednesday (August 24) closed down 0.83% to 284.50 yuan / gram; Shanghai Gold Exchange silver T + D Wednesday (August 24) closed down 2.02 late % reported 4081.00 yuan / kg

Futures: The whole line fell. Coke, coking coal and thermal coal fell 1.3%, 1.1% and 0.5% respectively; iron ore closed down 3%. Soybean, soybean meal and rapeseed meal fell 0.7%, 1.5% and 1.5% respectively; palm oil, soybean oil and vegetable oil fell 0.4%, 1.3% and 1.5% respectively.

[Today's attention]

Thursday, August 25, 2016

16:00 Germany's August IFO Business Climate Index

18:00 UK CBI retail sales difference in August

20:30 US to August 20th, the number of jobless claims in the first week of the week, the monthly rate of durable goods orders in the United States in July

21:45 US August Markit service industry PMI initial value

22:30 EIA natural gas inventory for the week from the US to August 19

[Today's actual strategy]

[gold]

1

Gold yesterday's Asian plate continued to revolve around the 1337 line, the rebound was weak, the height was limited, and the short-term attack of 1340 was unable to break through, indicating that the gold bulls could not form a joint force and began to gradually weaken. However, it still failed to break through the 1340 suppression, showing that the pressure on the top was heavy. During the US session, the bulls finally gave up their resistance. The gold line dipped, and the 1-hour platform and the 4-hour platform all fell, breaking through the important support position of 1330 and establishing the downside. Today's high-altitude ideas can be continued.

Today's actual strategy: gold in the 1330 first-line high-altitude, stop loss 1335 area, target 1320 area.

[US dollar index]

2

The US dollar index continued to rise in the Asian session yesterday. After an hour of standing on the MA60, the long-term upside was opened, but the short-term Yang failed to break through the 94.70 first-line repression. In the afternoon, it suffered a short-selling pressure, triggering a rapid retracement. The US dollar bottomed out to 94.50 during the European session. After the region stabilized, the bulls relied on the support of the 1-hour MA120, pushing the dollar to rebound quickly. After 1 hour of step-by-step pull-up, after breaking through the 94.70 area, continue to attack, and challenge the 94.90 line in the evening and then short-term retreat to seek support. At present, the double-bottom rebound in 4 hours is good, the MA60 provides support for 1 hour, and there is still room for upside in the short-term.

Today's actual strategy: the US dollar index is much lower at 94.60, with a stop loss of 94.40 and a target of 94.95. Focus on the above 95.00 area suppression.

[EUR/USD]

After constructing a 4-hour double-top, the euro continued its short-term downward trend of 4 hours in the Asian session yesterday. It fell below the 1.1300 mark and the MA30, opened the downside, followed by 4 hours of continuous negative, long no resistance, and lost MA60 and MA120 in 1 hour. The display market is still in a short-selling trend, and the short-term acceleration of the short-term one hour in the European trading session, the breakdown of the 1.1290 support and continuous decline. After the US session accelerated to the 1.1245 area, the short-term stabilized under the support of the 4-hour MA60, and then entered the weak consolidation, and today's high-altitude ideas can continue.

Today's actual strategy: the euro in the 1.1295 first-line high-altitude, stop loss 1.1345 area, target 1.1230 area.

[GBP to USD]

3

Sterling yesterday's Asian short-term rushed to the 1.3200 line and then retraced, but the retracement space is small, after the midday continuation with the 1.3180 first-line consolidation, the disk appeared resistance down, the European market time with the opportunity to weaken the dollar, the bulls quickly pull High pounds. After an hour of easy creation of a new high, the pound rallied in the US session, and rushed back to the 1.3270 line in the evening. After 4 hours of continuous high, it is objectively necessary to retreat and digest the profitable disk. At the same time, the 1 hour and 4 hours of the Bollinger band will be on the upper track to suppress the attack. Today, the idea of ​​high altitude is dominant.

Today's actual strategy: the pound is at 1.3270 high-altitude, stop loss 1.3320 area, target 1.3200 area.

[New York Crude Oil]

Today's actual strategy: crude oil in the 47.29 first-line high-altitude, stop loss 47.79 area, target 46.60 area.

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