Niu Hui: The peak of the British election is coming, these "critical moments" should not be missed!

On Wednesday (June 7th), the peak of the British election is about to come. According to the situation of the UK elections in the past and the current election of the UK election, a key timetable has been compiled for investors' reference.

Britain's Prime Minister Theresa May announced in April 2017 that it would hold the UK election ahead of June 8, 2017. Currently, there is a fierce competition between Teresa May and the largest opposition Labour candidate, Jeremy Corbyn. The latest poll results show that the Labor Party’s support rate rose before the election and narrowed the gap with the ruling party, the Conservative Party, led by Teresa May.

It is reported that the voting time for this British general election is from 8:00 to 22:00 local time on June 8th, and it is converted into Beijing time from 14:00 on June 8th to 05:00 on June 9th. There are a total of 650 constituencies in the general election, and each constituency produces one congress. If Teresa May wants to continue to be the British prime minister, then she will lead the Conservative Party to win at least 326 constituencies.

If there is a large gap in the support rate among the various parties in the UK, then the results will be known from around 03:00 to 04:00 local time on June 9 (Beijing time on June 9 from 10:00 to 11:00 am). However, if the election is glued, you may not be able to know the result until 07:00 on June 9th (14:00 on June 9th, Beijing time).

The following is a key timetable for Niuhui based on the past year's election in the UK and the current election of the UK election:

22:00 local time on June 8 (Beijing time, June 9th, 05:00)

The British general election will end and the BBC will announce the export polls at this time. Investors can initially judge the election, so it is necessary to pay close attention to the market reaction before and after the period. Judging from the situation during the 2015 general election, the sterling against the US dollar will expand rapidly at the opening of the Asian session.

Local time, June 8th, 23:00 (Beijing time, June 9th, 06:00)

Subsequently, the British government will go through the statistical election results. Usually the earliest result of the vote is Sunderland in the northeast of England, which often draws the vote before midnight on June 8 (07:00, June 9, Beijing time). It is reported that Sunderland is a strong position of the Labor Party. Since 1959, the Conservative Party has never won a vote in the general elections in the region.

Local time, June 9th, 01:00 (Beijing time, June 9th, 08:00)

The results of the vote in the Battersea and Putney constituencies in Greater London will be released at this time, which will be the first to reveal the election in London. It is expected that the Conservative Party will have difficulty obtaining sufficient support in the region. Unless there is a major shock, the number of seats won by the Conservatives and the Labour Party earlier is unlikely to change significantly.

Local time, June 9th, 01:30 (Beijing time, June 9th, 08:30)

This is the time when the election begins to become interesting. The Conservative Party is expected to grab three seats in the Labour Party position, and it will show whether the Conservative Party will win. Polls show that the Conservative Party’s traditional Labour Front in Wrexham, North Wales, can win a 2.8% vote more than in 2015. This means that once they win the election, they will increase their majority to more than 50. The Conservatives need to win 3.8 more points in the Darlington region of the Northeast than the last time, which may mean they will get 75 majority seats. In the Brexit referendum, 75% of the region is expected to vote in the EU. Therefore, elections in the general elections in the region may also show the impact of Brexit on the results of the UK election.

Local time, June 9th, 02:00 (Beijing time, June 9th, 09:00)

At this time, the voting results of about 50 constituencies were released. If the Conservatives win at this time, they will further prove that they won in Bury South and Greater Manchester. They need to get 5.2 percent more support in these regions than they did in 2015 to win, and once that means they will get more than 100 seats.

However, this is also the goal of the Labor Party. The Labour Party and the Conservative Party fought fiercely in the constituency near South Berry. The Labour Party needs to win over 2 percentage points in support of Peterborough in eastern England. If the Labour Party wins in the region, it means that no party has an absolute majority.

At this point, the first batch of billing results in Scotland will also be released. Polls show that the Conservatives are narrowing the gap in support with the Scottish National Party led by Scottish Chief Minister Nicola SturGE on. The Liberal Democrats are also seeking support from Fife, Scotland.

Local time, June 9th, 02:30 (Beijing time, June 9th, 09:30)

Hartlepool is an important goal of the Conservative Party in the Northeast. Labour's goals include the Conservatives' positions in the edge of the Vale of Clwyd in northern Wales and the northern part of Warwickshire in central England. The Labour Party needs to gain 3.1% more support in those regions to win.

Labor Party leader Jeremy Corbin's personal seat elections in the Islington North area of ​​London will be announced at this time. Undoubtedly, he will make a speech on the TV station and may suggest that he will be supported by political party activists across the country.

Local time, June 9th, 03:00 (Beijing time, June 9th, 10:00)

It is about to reach its peak moment. The Conservative Party will seek the possibility of winning in a nationwide Labour Party position. These possibilities include two seats in Newport, South Wales. The most recent election of Conservative MPs in the region was in 1983. The other two seats may exist in Coventry, which tends to be Labour in West Midlands. After the conservative candidate was chosen as the mayor of Tees Valley last month, the Conservatives have the possibility of winning in the northeastern Stockton North, but the Conservatives still need to be in the region. Achieved a support rate of 10.6 percentage points more than the previous time to win.

In theory, Ealing Central & Acton is the most likely seat of the Conservative Party in London, but in the Brexit referendum, most of the votes in the region support the UK to stay in the EU. . Therefore, in this British election, the region may support the Labor Party. The Dagenham & Rainham region mostly supported the Brexit in the Brexit referendum and created the highest number of Brexit votes in the London region. Therefore, although the Labour Party won by 8.5% in the region in 2015, the region may still support the Conservative Party.

The Conservative Party currently has three main goals in Scotland. The latest Scottish polls show that the Conservatives will receive six seats from the Scottish National Party, including Perth & Perthshire North, Moray and Renfrewshire East. Mali not only created the highest number of votes in the Scottish region to support Brexit, but also the base of the Scottish National Party's deputy party leader Angus Robertson.

Joe Swinson of the Liberal Democrats (Jo Swinson only needs 2 percentage points more support to win back from Dunbartonshire East in the hands of the Scottish National Party. But if the Liberal Democrats were on the night of the British election In a bad situation, their leader, Tim Farron, may be hit by the Conservatives in Westmoreland & Lonsdale in northwest England.

Local time, June 9th, 03:30 (Beijing time, June 9th, 10:30)

Up to now, more than one-third of the constituencies have been released. If the Conservatives are lucky, then they may get support from Sedgefield in the northeast, and they will win the Labour Party position by winning 8.8% more votes than the last time. The area is the old position of Tony Blair, the former prime minister of the British Labor Party. Areas such as London, Ilford North, Enfield North and Westminster North are vulnerable to a small impact from the Conservatives.

Local time, June 9th, 04:00 (Beijing time, June 9th, 11:00)

This will be the busiest moment. But at this time, the shape of the new British parliament should be quite clear. If this is not the case, then at this time, you need to pay attention to the voting results of those key constituencies. Labour's goals include the Gower in South Wales, the Croydon Central and Hendon areas in London, and the Plymouth area. The Conservatives will focus on the Labour Party seats in the central region, including Walsall North and NewCA stle-Under-Lyme.

For the Liberal Democrats, this will be a crucial moment for their success or failure. Former British business minister Vince Cable is seeking support for winning Twickenham from southwestern London from the Conservatives. Former British Energy Secretary Ed Davey is competing with the Conservatives in Kingston and Surbiton near the area. Sarah Olney is maintaining her constituency in last year's by-election in Richmond Park. In the London area, Simon Hughes is planning to take his old Bermondsey position back from the Labour Party. Supporting the British conservative seat in the Bath area of ​​the European Union (Bath) is also one of the goals of the Liberal Democrats. However, the Liberal Democrats are vulnerable to Conservatives in areas such as Southport in the northwest of England, Kashaton and Carshalton & Wallington in London.

Local time, June 9th, 04:30 (Beijing time, June 9th, 11:30)

So far, two-thirds of the UK's constituencies have been voted out. When the results of the vote in these constituencies are announced, Teresa May will speak at Maidenhead in West London. The main swinging constituency includes the southwestern part of Wolverhampton in the West Midlands, where the Conservatives can only win 1% of the extra support. Nick Clegg, the former leader of the Liberal Democrats, may face pressure from the Labour Party in Sheffield Hallam.

Local time, June 9th, 05:00 (Beijing time, June 9th, 12:00)

If the vote is still going on at this time, we will be able to judge the results of the election from the election of the 10 constituencies that the Conservative Party is most likely to win in the Labour Party position. These include: Chester and Wirral West in the northwest of England, Halifax in Yorkshire, and Brentford in West London. Brentford & Isleworth. West of Bristol is the Green Party's seat in the House of Commons. British Independent Party (UKIP) leader Paul Nuttall is casting votes in Boston and Skegness in eastern England.

Local time, June 9th, 06:00 (Beijing time, June 9th, 13:00)

So far, more than 600 constituency election results have been released. The Conservatives' seats in the Derby North and Brighton Kemptown areas are the must-go goals of the Labour Party. Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk are the most likely Scottish constituencies for the Conservatives to win.

If the voting results at this time have clearly shown that the Labour Party has won, then Corbin is expected to deliver a winning speech in the next few hours.

Local time, June 9th, 07:00 (Beijing time, June 9th, 14:00)

The voting results of the 650 constituencies in the UK have been basically released. According to FX678, if a party has an absolute majority of parliamentarians, then the party will form the next British government, and the party leader will become the British prime minister. If no party has an absolute majority, then two or more parties with an absolute majority will form a coalition government, and the largest party leader will become the British prime minister. Or a new British government will be formed by a single party and will continue through informal alliances and agreements with other parties. It is very difficult to pass government-mandated regulations in the House of Commons, which lacks a majority of seats.

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2017-6-7