Dialogue Wu Hongtao: I never think that stopping losses in the futures market is a good thing.

This article was first published on the WeChat public account: Qihe. The content of the article belongs to the author's personal opinion and does not represent the position of Hexun.com. Investors should act accordingly, at their own risk.

Interviewer: Wu Hongtao, 20 years of experience in investment in futures securities industry, is currently the general manager of Shanjing Investment Management Co., Ltd. (formerly Foyi Investment Company). The network nicknamed "Gold! Sniper." For the soybean meal variety market to grasp the precision, is known in the industry as "the cardamom king." At the beginning of 2016, the company accurately seized the cardamom market and was criticized by the media as a new "private partnership." He has participated in the Blue Sea Mi Jian and Futures Real-Time Competition and won awards.

Wonderful views:

My trading system can be copied, and the profit can be copied.

There is a market and no market is known after the end of the market, you only know the probability before the market comes out.

A number of positions are buried in many varieties as seeds. Which seed has sprouted, I will add a position on which seed.

I always recommend that you not open for three years and open for three years.

Now it is a contradictory market, so I think the soybean meal market will not be too big this year. The annual shock rate is similar to around 500 in 2015.

Since the policy came out last year, corn is currently in the process of repricing.

I think the spot price of corn may float 100-150 points above 1500.

If there is a big market, most of the money will go in, and then the fundamentals will cooperate. The smart funds will predict the change and go to the layout first.

Before the US planting area came out on June 30, the soybean meal will be dominated by yin, and the soybean oil and oil market will be dominated by shocks.

Now oil companies are clearly throwing oil, and by the second half of the year, the operation of oil companies may become a throwing oil.

First, the opportunity is waiting. Second, the opportunity is falling out.

Agricultural products 000061, the stock price is now in China's trend is rising.

Once the food falls to the cost price, you can stare at it. Once it falls below the cost price, you can gradually enter the market.

Cardamom is a four-year cycle.

When the market breaks through, it is the best time to increase the position. First, the space is small, and second, the position is at a low level.

The September contract for the soybean meal is suitable for long, and the May contract is suitable for short.

All historical highs of soybean meal are generated in the September contract, and historical lows are generated in the May contract.

If there is a big market, there must be a deep drop and a sharp drop. If there is no deep drop and a sharp drop, the market for the second year will be relatively small.

There is no market for soybean meal this year, depending on whether there is a deep drop before August or September this year.

I don't like to pay attention to hotspots. I prefer to pay attention to things that others are not willing to pay attention to. I like to go against the trend. I don't like homeopathy.

The fat has fallen out of value and the risk has been released.

I personally think that rubber has gradually turned from a bear market to a bull market.

When the color collapses and the rubber follows the decline, it is a good short-term entry point.

Last year's rubber was around 10,000. Last year, the RMB depreciated by about 15%. Therefore, the low point of rubber this year has also increased by 15% or 20%. This year, the low point of rubber is in the range of 12,000 to 12,500.

The rubber history market has a large callback, and its callback speed is extremely fast. The top and bottom poses are extremely short, so you must run fast when you do it.

The rubber has a short residence time at the bottom, and its fundamental response is very fast, basically every 3-4 months is a wave of market.

The rubber near-month contract is more suitable for speculation, and the far-month contract is more suitable for investment.

In every round of operation, if I make sure that the market is the bottom range, I will buy it with a sharp drop. If I am sure that the market is the top range, I will sell it in a hurry. I am the left side of the warehouse, the right side of the warehouse. .

I don't always think that stop loss in the futures market is a good thing. The person with good stop loss is of course good. If the stop loss is not good, he will break the mentality of a trader.

I basically operate against the trend, that is, when the fundamentals are absolutely optimistic and the technical indicators have been given very well, my first step is to close the position.

When I was short, my position was not big. When I was long, I had a bigger position.

Although not the main force, I also have a main idea.

When the fundamentals have a margin of safety, a preliminary position is built, and when the technical side has a margin of safety, the position is reversed. To increase the position against the trend, the position should not be more than 10% aggressive in principle.

I think the opportunity is falling out, the more it falls, the more the risk is released.

I don't recommend going to the stock index first, because the stock index has leverage at this point, and the risk is still relatively large.

Buying options are more suitable for retail investors because they are limited risk, unlimited profits, and it is suitable for contrarian trading, especially if you find an absolute bottom.

I think that all the tools you have to use are the best and most profitable side of it. I always feel that there is no compound interest in the futures market, but there is a huge profit.

The market is not because you have money to have a market, nor because you have no money, there is no market, the market is always there.

Although I am a retail investor, I want to turn myself into the main force, so I always think about the problem from the perspective of the main force.

Don't say that you have been mixing in the market for three years, even if you haven't made money for 30 years.

I still think that this market is actually a market for you to make huge profits. What we have to do is to wait patiently with your controllable money and seize a wave of market.

Mr. Wu Hongtao will hold a training session on band and trend trading from June 3rd to 4th. For details, please click to view or consult 13752250514 (same as WeChat)

Moderator: Today, the seven grass network [master face to face] invited to Wu Hongtao teacher. Mr. Wu Hongtao has been trading for 25 years and is the first person in the market to make futures. At the same time, he is also a special lecturer at the Grand Chamber of Commerce. He has recently lectured all over the country and is very hard. Today, we are also very fortunate to have invited Teacher Wu to Hangzhou to come to our studio to be a "master face to face" program. Many friends saw that Wu’s technique was more fierce in the game. The first thing to ask is that such a method can obtain huge profits in a short period of time. Can it be copied many times or just for a moment?

Wu Hongtao: I think it can be repeated. I started in 2009, and in addition to doubling the revenue in 2015, the other annual revenues have doubled. In 2009, it was 10 times, in 2010 it was 6 times, in 2011 it was 3 times, in 2012 it was 2 times, in 2013 it was 6 times, in 2014 it was 8 times, in 2015 it was a loss, and in 2016 it was more than ten times. So I think from the data, my trading system can be copied, and the profit can be copied.

Moderator: According to the understanding of the average person, the huge profits are a wave of market in a short period of time. If you catch it, you will make money. In the future, there may be no market, or you may not get it. You said that you can copy, why can you copy?

Wu Hongtao: There is a market and no market is known after the completion of the market, you only know the probability before the market comes out, maybe this variety has a market, maybe that variety has a market. But your system will focus on a lot of varieties, and in some varieties, some parts will be buried as seeds. Which seed has sprouted, I will add a position on which seed. I really like to make cardamom, but I don't just make cardamom. I will pay attention to rubber, palm oil, rapeseed or other commodities, but I may not make much money on soybean meal.

Moderator: If we get several times in a short period of time and tens of times the income, the most fear is that the money will be returned to the market. For example, if 10,000 earned one million and then lost to 100,000, although it earned 10 times, it was still unhappy. How can we keep the profit?

Wu Hongtao: I basically keep 70% and 80% of my earnings every time in my pocket, because I don't like snowballing, I don't like snowballing. I am a Northeaster. I have known since childhood that the ending of snowballing is tragic, not broken, or broken by people, or melted when the weather is warm, so the concept of snowballing does not exist. I am making futures, the first time I doubled the principal, and then doubled up to 50% of the proceeds. Last year I made tens of millions of agricultural products and rubber, but I only took 5 million and 10 million this year. In this case, even if the loss is over, it will not be too concerned. If the mentality is good, it will cause huge profits. Don't snowball in the futures market, you earn 10 times, as long as you lose 50%, half will be gone. And 50% is very easy for me to be radical and heavy.

Moderator: Suppose you have 5 million funds, when will you pay the first time, when will you withdraw the money for the second time, and when will the rest of the money be kept?

Wu Hongtao: I have to double the money for the first time because I have to get the principal back. If you lose money afterwards, it will not affect the principal. In the future, every time you earn twice, you will pay 50% of the gold. This is equivalent to snowballing and semi-complexation. If you can seize the market, the number of lots that can be held in the account will increase. If you come to a smooth market, the multiple is still relatively large, but the curve will be ugly. For example, 1 million earned 2 million, net worth 2, and after 1 million of cash, earned another 1 million, the net value is 4, and so on, the net value may become 16, but in the end there is only 1 million. If one day's luck is not good, and the 1 million loss is lost, the net value will drop from 16 to 1 in an instant. In fact, profits only retreat 20%, 30%, and possibly less, but the net value will be very retracing. Last year, I entered an account in the Futures Daily. The initial fund was 1.5 million. After 4, 5, 6 and 7 months, I had nearly 10 million funds. The account had more than 4 million, and I lost nearly 1.5 million. If I look at the net value, I may have lost more than 30%, but if I look at the income, I don't even lose 10%. This way, although the curve is not good, but my mentality is good. In the futures market, if it is pure snowballing, one day, or a black swan, your profit may be lost in half.

Moderator: There are many big players in the market. Do you think that they can achieve billions of dollars and tens of billions of scale from tens of thousands? We suspect that they may not have such a habit of giving money. What do you think of their practices?

Wu Hongtao: It varies from person to person. It is possible that if I don’t pay for gold, there are billions of net worth. But I dare not try, in principle, do not spit back the money earned. I am also here, 40-year-old, still steady. I am also learning from a lot of friends, earning money to buy a house, earning money on futures this year, including the price I also earned. This market is a wealth management market. How do you do a good job of wealth distribution and finally achieve steady growth of wealth? This is the most crucial.

Moderator: You mentioned buying a house. Can you tell me how many houses you have in Beijing?

Wu Hongtao: Beijing has a house, a villa and a shop. It turned out that there may be more, but last year I sold some houses and shops that were not well rented and re-integrated them.

Moderator: Beijing's housing prices are also rising rapidly. How have you earned in housing prices over the years?

Wu Hongtao: There is no less earning. Last year, I bought a villa. In one year, I earned more than 10 million yuan in housing prices. But this is only a ratio, and the shop is only because it wants to precipitate the money earned through the futures market. One of the things I often say is that house prices are falling faster and there is no faster futures. House prices will fall by 10% and 20% at most in one year, but the futures market may lose 20% and 30% a day. And the risk of doing futures is that the market is not available every day. When there is no market, we can still rent the rent, tens of thousands a month, and can guarantee the standard of life, so there is no sense of urgency. Sometimes the market will do it. If it doesn't, it will stop. I always recommend that you not open it for three years and open it for three years. Everyone can see that my usual position is not big, basically only take two or three million, but once the market appears, my approach is still very fierce. And the futures have leverage, as long as the leverage is added, 3 million funds are full, but in fact the equivalent of 60 million funds are running.

Moderator: Just now you mentioned that the money invested in the futures account will not be particularly large, so how do you configure the extra assets?

Wu Hongtao: I will do stocks and fixed income. If there is no market, I will do small funds. If there is a market, I will call some funds to come over. I will look at the market. But in general, 30% of idle funds will be invested in the futures market, up to 30%, so the risk can be dispersed. To be honest, we are going to take risks in futures, but I am also a risk averse.

Moderator: Everyone knows how to make cardamom. How do you think about the market of soybean meal so far this year? From the whole year, do you think there will be a big market for soybean meal this year?

Wu Hongtao: Generally speaking, the soybean meal market will not be very big this year. Compared with the same period of last year, global production has increased by 30 million tons this year. At this time last year, the United States expected a yield of 46, and the harvest was 52, which is 10% higher than expected, and nearly 10 million tons. Everyone thinks that Argentina will cut production by the end of the year. As a result, it has increased production by 200,000 tons by now. This is negligible and is in line with expectations. Brazil last year was 96 million tons, and this year it has reached 113 million tons, which has increased by 17 million tons. Judging from these three figures, the global soybean stocks may increase by nearly 27 million tons this year, and at present, China's land area will increase by 30%-40%. This news may come out at the end of this month. Coupled with China, global production may increase by 30 million tons. On the demand side, China imported 87 million tons last year. This year, it may hit 90 million tons. It is expected that demand will increase by 3 million tons, plus the demand of other countries. There may still be inventory pressure of 20 million tons. And look at the weather, some time ago said that the United States under the blizzard, and the current blizzard has an impact on the corn, if the corn planting time is delayed, the planting area is reduced, the remaining planting area will be allocated to soybeans, while soybeans from the five Seeding begins only after the month and can be planted until the beginning of June. If the corn is not planted, it may be added to the soybeans, and the final planting area of ​​the soybeans may increase more than expected. This is bad news, including the current bird flu, egg prices have fallen to 2,000 yuan a ton, there will be the possibility of killing chicken, which has a great impact on chicken feed. A lot of bad news has made it difficult for soybean meal to rise, but it will not fall. Because it is the peak demand season, it is now the process of stocking up until mid-July. So now there is pressure, but the demand is indeed there. The piglet calf and lamb have risen since the spring, and have risen to seven or eight months, and the demand for feed has also increased. So now it is a contradictory market, so I think that this year's soybean meal market will not be too big, if there is no weather effect, there will not be much rebound. If the weather in the United States is normal, there is still a process of killing. At present, the domestic market is about 150 points stronger than the US market. If the external market remains sloppy for some time, the US fund also holds a large number of short positions, and there is no sign of lightening the position. If you squat down to about 900, then the domestic disk may return to 2700 or below. But in general, I don't think this year's market will be too big. The annual shock rate is similar to around 500 in 2015.

Moderator: You just mentioned that the area of ​​soybeans has increased. Is the area of ​​corn squeezed?

Wu Hongtao: Extrusion is extrusion, but the stock of corn is too large. And corn has been in the process of repricing since its policy last year. The price of corn in the first half of last year was almost 2,200, 2,300, and after the policy came out, corn returned to between 1400 and 1600. But what kind of price range corn has to meet, I am not sure now. I think the spot price of corn may float 100-150 points above 1500.

Moderator: Now many people think that the planting area of ​​corn will decrease, the area planted with soybeans will rise, and the stock will be consumed almost after a period of time, so they think that 1801 corn or longer-term contracts will have a better rise. Do you recognize this logic?

Wu Hongtao: From the distant moon, it may be plausible. However, from January to May next year, from the current position and volume, the main force has not yet entered, and retail investors want to go advanced. I don't think this kind of logic is very good. If a contract doesn't even pay attention to the big family, only the retail investors will participate, so the market will not be big. If the corn has a big market, most of it is a large amount of money, and then the fundamentals will cooperate. The smart funds will predict the change and go to the layout first. If you don't even have a layout, you should first put the funds in, which may take up the cost of capital, and there is no money to do other costs.

Moderator: So from your point of view, this year's hot money category, similar to corn, soybean meal, palm oil, vegetable oil, soybean oil is not likely to have a big market?

Wu Hongtao: The first half of the year has basically ended. There is no big market. That is to say, before I think that the US planting area will come out on June 30, the soybean meal will be dominated by yin, and the soybean oil and oil market will be dominated by shocks. Because the demand for oil in the summer is still weak, and now oil companies are obviously throwing oil. But this is only a temporary process. By the second half of the year, the operation of oil companies may become a throwing oil. Because soy oil does kill very low, this time may have a chance, and in the winter, the palm oil has not been used in the north. On New Year's Day and the Spring Festival, the demand for oil may go up. Recently, everyone can pay attention to the contract of soybean oil 1801. If you are in a hurry, or if you are in the low position, you can consider it. And in general, the risk of oil has basically been released, the previous purchase of soybean meal tossed soybean oil should slowly turn to buy soybean oil tossed beans. Coupled with the low price of eggs, some chicken farmers may not be able to support the second half of the year. If the chickens are killed in advance, the demand for soybean meal may decline. Moreover, the demand for its own soybean meal has not increased significantly, but it is only a seasonal increase in production.

Moderator: I have a friend who is watching our live broadcast and asked questions, how to judge a big opportunity? For example, the oil we just mentioned has no big chance, and it may only be arbitrage, which can only make a small amount of money. Someone is asking questions, how can we get profiteering opportunities like you? According to your standards, whether it is fundamental or technical, when a variety meets the conditions, the probability of a big market is relatively high?

Wu Hongtao: I have two preconditions for profiteering. First, the opportunity is waiting. Second, the opportunity is falling out. Especially for agricultural products, the deeper the fall, the lower the risk. Unlike industrial products, the cost is not good, and it also receives economic impact. Sometimes it really does not fall out. Agricultural products still have a bottom range, and the cost is predictable. If the price is low this year, the planting area will decrease next year. It is difficult to stop the industrial products when they start up. It is really impossible to stop the car when the supply exceeds demand. Once the agricultural products are not good this year, the planting area will decrease immediately next year. Moreover, the trend of agricultural products now in China is rising, and it is always necessary to protect the interests of farmers. The 5,000-year history of China was not violent because of human rights. It was all because hunger was violent. Just eat it, so the state must guarantee food. Prevent some people from causing 603,883 people in the disaster year. rice. Once the food falls to the cost price, you can stare at it. Once it falls below the cost price, you can gradually enter the market.

Moderator: When the agricultural products fall to the extent that the fundamentals and technical aspects match, will we grasp the bigger ones?

Wu Hongtao: From the emotional point of view, when will retail investors be short, when will they start to do more. The fundamental is that the spot price or futures price has fallen to the farmers' production costs, and it may even fall below the cost as early as last year. This is safer. You can start to pay attention when you fall to the cost. You can build a basic warehouse of 5% and 10%. If you are more aggressive than me, you can add positions to 20% and 25%. In terms of technical form, it is best to have all the indicators below. Indicators I generally look at KD, RSI, and look at the weekly K line. In the case of cardamom, the bottomping time will be longer and the top time will be shorter. Therefore, as long as 3 months, and more than 6 or 7 months of indicators, if the cardamom is at the bottom, it will not be less than 3 months of shock, there will be a shock box type. Last year, the price of the US plate was already around 850, and it fell to the production cost of American farmers. Some regions have already fallen, and the domestic period is also fluctuating. On March 15 last year, the US fund went from the net short position of 40,000 hands, and it became a net long position of 20,000 in a week. Until April 2, the net long position became 100,000 hands, which gave us a big signal. . The other was the flood in Argentina at that time, which caused 5 million tons of soybeans to be harvested. This was a good opportunity. At that time, the market was still fluctuating. At this time, some small pressure zones were formed, with a range of 2450. At this time, the market was roughly in line with the range of 4-5 months at the bottom, and the bottom amount was gradually released. At this time, the price broke through 2450, which formed a general trend. From a larger cycle, the first peak of soybean meal was in March 2004, the second peak was in July 2008, and the third peak was in September 2012. You can see that soybean meal is a four-year cycle. Therefore, when a bottom-range volatility is formed in 2016, there will definitely be a big market. When we have already predicted that there will be a big market, we must be embarrassed to start. And I personally think that when the market breaks through, it is the best time to increase the position. First, the space is small, and second, the position is at a low level. I don't like to go up and add, and finally become an inverted pyramid. The market has risen by 100 points and the callback is 20 points. It may be over. Therefore, I like to break through the market and add a very heavy position. If you make a mistake, don't look at the position, but my stop loss is small. If you do it right, like a tall building, the high floor is covered by two or five floors. Determine the size of the foundation, the heavier the bottom warehouse, the higher the building, the higher the income, the smaller the bottom warehouse, the smaller the jiacang. If your foundation is 80% of the position, you can add 10% or 20% to it, but if you have a light position at the bottom, you can catch up at the high position. If the market is slightly adjusted, the profit will be gone. Can you continue to hold it? It is very difficult to order. If you start to make 2 hands, add 5 hands in the back, add 5 hands after the rise, it will become 12 hands, the market will be a little bit of a callback, it will lose money, because there will often be a 3% or 5% callback. In fact, the 20% callback is normal. Sometimes the market may call back 30% to 40%. The list will immediately lose money. After another storm, the list will not be able to stay.

Moderator: At this time last year, the price was around 2300. At that time, did you pay attention to the spot price?

Wu Hongtao: At that time, I considered the spot price and went to several feed enterprises to inspect, but I did not go to the oil company, because the fate and loss of the oil was already very clear. At that time, the soybean meal was very serious, and there was almost no place to put the soybean meal because it The price is very low, and all dealers and traders use how much. At that time, I went to several feed companies and found that their stocks were very low. I asked them if they had traders? They answered almost no traders. I understand very well that a large amount of inventory is accumulated in oil companies. It is obvious that there is no stock in the middle. There is no trader in the middle, and there is no stock in the feed enterprises. If the price is light, traders start to trade, they take a wave of stock, feed. The company will take another wave of inventory and will immediately consume the oil plant's inventory. Because the price is too low, there is no inventory in hand, as long as the price comes together, they immediately start to stock up.

I asked the feed company again, the current price of 2300, how high can you see the future market? He replied that in June and July, he can watch around 300 points. I said that the market for 300 points is already quite a lot. The spot price is 300 points, and the futures can be more than 300 points, because the futures still have a reverse cutting position. If the spot rises by 300 points or 400 points, the futures may rise to 2700 points or 2800 points. At 2300, the soybean meal has a position of 2 million, and the 1 million position has a loss of 400 points. What is the concept of 400 points? 30% of the positions are already close to the spot. If you go up 100 points, these people will cut the position and push the market up to 2800 points. After 2800 points, in the case of another slash, the person holding the 20% position will not be able to stand it, and will push the market up. The previous market was driven by the main decline, driven by the fundamentals, while the latter market was driven in the opposite direction, driven by the slashing positions in the opposite direction.

Moderator: Can we understand this? Many people are concerned about whether there is a big market for agricultural products. On the one hand, the fundamentals should be matched. Just the price has fallen or has broken its cost price. It has to be 3-4 months. Even longer. On the other hand, at this time, traders and dealers have no stocks, plus a wind and grass, a price breaks through a narrow consolidation range, which may increase by 30% or 50%, or even double .

Wu Hongtao: It is possible. The reason why it can generate huge profits is not simply one or two methods. It is particularly familiar with the fundamentals of commodity varieties. When you find that the wind is moving, you should pay attention to it. When you find a big move, you start to increase the position, and in the process of adding a position, you must make an expected goal, then you can make a profit.

Moderator: Many investors are engaged in futures trading on a full-time basis. In a variety, such a market may only come once in 2-3 years or more, and most people are unwilling to be lonely. They always want to do something every day. What should I do?

Wu Hongtao: When you have studied the basics of agricultural products and studied the basics of soybeans, you will learn about the fundamentals of soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal and soybean meal, and they all have prices. In 2013 and 2014, my profits came from short-selling fats. In the second half of 2014, after June 30, I made soybean meal and then made a profit. In 2015, it was a loss. At that time, I made a stock index, 10 million yuan of funds, up to 30 million, and then fell, I was forced to only 3 million.

Pay attention to a series of varieties, so after studying the fundamentals, there will be many opportunities.

Moderator: What we just shared is a long-term perspective. From a short-selling perspective, under what circumstances is the short-selling profit relatively rich?

Wu Hongtao: Generally, the short-selling profit is not very rich. You open the graph, especially the variety of soybean meal. The soybean meal is not very big in the overall decline process. Except for 2014, after the US released the agricultural report on June 30, there is a relative A relatively large short market. On the graph, you will see that all the short points of the cardamom are not very large, but the increase is particularly large, and in some cases, the rate of decline is very fast, it is difficult to make money. Agricultural products are rising at a particularly fast rate, and the rate of decline is particularly slow, and many varieties are completed during the delivery month. The September contract for soybean meal is suitable for long-term, and the May contract is suitable for short.

Because all the historical highs of soybean meal are produced in the September contract, you can see that the high point of the May contract is not very obvious, basically at 4000 or 4500, and on the September contract, it basically rushed to 4300 or even near. The 4800 position, and many historical lows are generated in the May contract. Because the US production was confirmed during this period, the country began to import a large amount, and the production of Brazil and South America was also confirmed. The new annual planting area of ​​the United States and China was also determined, which was a time when a lot of bad news was generated. The September contract is not the same, because in July and August, the beans of the previous year were basically used, and the new year has not yet been picked, plus the spring piglet calf lambs grow to July and August. When it became a big pig, big cattle and big sheep, the demand increased, so many high points were produced in September. When we are long, we will do the September contract, and then we will do the January contract. When we are short, we will do it in May, and then we will do it in January. The January contract is a long and short transition point, and it will not generate a big market. Sometimes a long or short configuration is a transition bridge.

From the perspective of the big market, the market sentiment of agricultural products has not risen. And there is another point. If there is a big market, there must be a deep drop and a sharp drop. If there is no deep drop and a sharp drop, the market for the second year is relatively small. We can see from the graph that every time there is a sharp fall in the market, and in the case of a deep decline, the second year of the rising market can be generated. So whether there is a market for soybean meal this year depends on whether there is a deep drop before August or September this year. If there is no deep drop, this year's market will not be too big.

Moderator: At least we look at the graph. At present, this period is still a relatively small fluctuation. What is the probability of expecting a big market in the future?

Wu Hongtao: This year's market will not be too big, because it is the limit from the 2700 or 2800 position to 3200 or 3300, but if you fall deep this year, you can fall below 2600, it is also opening up space, this time The market may be bigger. Either until the end of June and July, extreme weather, but this probability is not large, and the US genetically modified soybeans have strong drought and resistance.

Moderator: We have already said a lot about cardamom. This year has also passed 5 months. What kind of products are you mainly doing during this time?

Wu Hongtao: I haven't done anything during this time. I said in December last year that this year's market is not big. I suggest everyone take a break. Because I feel that there is no way to do the market in the first half of this year. If you don’t make money, you don’t necessarily make money, so you don’t do much. From January to the present, although I have made money, the profit earned is not very high.

Moderator: Do you mainly do arbitrage or what?

Wu Hongtao: I didn’t do arbitrage. I did a few small unilaterals. I went to inspect the iron ore at the end of February and shorted some iron ore. But because I don’t know much about this variety, I am still learning, so the position is not Very big. At around 2950, ​​I had some cardamom, but everyone saw it at the profit point. It fell 200 points and returned to 100 points, so the profit was not great.

I don't like to pay attention to hotspots. I prefer to pay attention to things that others are not willing to pay attention to. I like to go against the trend. I don't like homeopathy. At present, I am concerned about several obvious varieties, one is oil and the other is rubber. The fat has fallen out of value and the risk has been released. Everyone looked at the rubber contract in January, and the rubber fell from more than 40,000 to less than 10,000, which fell for 6 years. This round of gains has clearly deviated from the downtrend channel, and the graphics have been changed into weekly lines. That is, when this round of weekly falls, it basically revolves around the 60-week line. After the increase in the second half of last year, although this round of callback is relatively large, but because of the influence of other varieties, the rubber increase is also fierce, so a big callback, because it is still the beginning of the bull market, I personally think that rubber has now A round of bear market gradually turned into a bull market. But everyone can look at it, whether it is a bull market or a bear market, it is a big shock, the amplitude range is almost 10,000 points, this round of market decline is nearly 9000 points, also in line with the amplitude range. When you hit the moving average in the down market or close to the moving average, you will see the top, and this round may go so far, it is a rising callback average line or there may be a virtual break, between 1000 and 1500, and then proceed The volatility of the market, that is, a round of rubber bull market began. If you are operating in this position, you should be cautious and consider whether other varieties will cooperate, including whether the color will continue to fall. If the color declines, it will also fall. My idea is that when the color collapses and the rubber follows the decline, it is a good short-term entry point, because the risk of a sharp drop in rubber has now been released. Moreover, last year's rubber was around 10,000. Last year, the RMB depreciated by about 15%. Therefore, the low point of rubber this year is also 15% or 20% higher. This year, the low point of rubber is in the range of 12,000 to 12,500. As you can see, this interval is exactly the location of the high-dot area last year, close to an S line, so it is valuable in this position. As for the value of this value, it should be adjusted according to personal personality and personal fund management. It is too radical, people will Injury, too stable, this round of rebound will make less money, according to their own situation to identify.

That is to say, the short sale of rubber can make money, but it does not make much money. Like gambling gambling, if the probability is to lose 1 to earn 4, I will do it. If it is 3, I will not do it, and in this position, if you manage the money well, we can hold the risk of falling rubber in the distant month. . For example, below I think there will be a drop of 1000 to 1500 points. There is at least a 3000 point increase. It is now an odds of 1 to 2. However, if there is a sharp drop, it will fall 500 or 600 points. A loss of 1000 points, more than 3,000 points of profit, is 1 to 3, depending on your skills, the point of purchase and the point of sale.

If you are patient enough or the market gives you the opportunity, according to the current price, it will drop about 1000 points and then enter the market. Basically, it will only set a little bit. The upside may have 3000 points or 4000 points, that is, this round of market declines by 50%. Everyone opens the graph, and the rubber market often retreats at 50%.包括上涨也是这样的，回调幅度都很大，所以我们做橡胶的时候一定要谨慎，不要仓位太重，因为它的利润点很大。

橡胶一回调就是50%，很少有20%或30%的回调，起步是50%，甚至超过60%，它的回调是很凶的。大家打开9月份合约可以看到，橡胶每轮上升或每轮下跌回调幅度都很大，而且它每次回调都会把做对方向的人洗掉。例如你做多，你认为你做对了，但是每次回调，它都会给你洗掉，除了2008年的那轮行情除外，其它历史行情回调幅度都很大，而且它回调速度特别快，顶部和底部的构成时间特别短，所以做它的时候一定要跑得快，别太贪，虽然我经常满仓，但是做它我就不敢。

主持人：现在橡胶是不是有您刚才所说的特征，它似乎再跌一点，会跌出价值来？

吴洪涛：期货市场中也有价值投资，但一定得记住，这个价值投资接近生产成本或者是跌破生产成本的情况下，这时候我们去考虑远月。大家可以看到，橡胶这个品种在底部停留时间很短，而且它的基本面反应速度很快，基本上每3-4个月就是一波行情，所以你只要在每轮跌幅的情况下，在远月合约上布局。近月合约风险较大一些，因为现在已经进入5月份了，也可以操作，但是如果是手法慢的或者是反应速度慢的，可以往远月换，因为我觉得现在是橡胶一轮牛市的起步阶段，如果把仓位控制好了，远月合约的利润点要稳定一些。

主持人： 1月份合约相比9月份合约有近2000点的升水，很多人心里会有一个压力，还没有买就2000点利润没有了，你怎么看？

吴洪涛：从理论上来说，这2000点既然存在，就有存在的道理，我的操作想法是目前离9月份时间还早，近月合约的仓位稍微重一点，远月份稍微布一点单子，按长线去做。我认为还是近月合约比较适合投机，远月合约比较适合投资，既然投资，一定要把杠杆放低。

主持人：如果要做多橡胶，我们是现在就轻仓做，还是再等它跌一点？

吴洪涛：我始终认为它没有短期见底迹象，最好是等到急跌结束，相对来说，橡胶短期来看还有向下的可能性。我在每轮操作的时候，假如我确定行情是底部区间，我会以急跌去买，假如我确定行情是顶部区间，我会以急涨去卖，我是左侧建仓，右侧加仓。左侧建仓的意思是说我预期它会上涨，还没有涨起来的时候，我会在急跌的情况下把我的仓位布进去，有可能我买进时还会套牢一点。对于激进的我来说，左侧交易基本仓不会超过10%，我这里的10%不是一笔单子进场，跌到13000，我可能进个3%，跌到12800，我再进3%，跌到12500，10%就跌完了。我也担心它到12800就不跌了，图形做好在进行突破的时候，我才能加仓。而且这个加仓可能起步就20%，因为行情刚一突破的时候加仓是最安全的，第一，加仓点位特别低，第二，止损好做。

主持人：还有一个问题，用橡胶举例，例如我们建完仓之后，跌倒12500，假设它还会再往下跌，我们要不要做止损？怎么做止损？

吴洪涛：我可能是个反教材，我始终不认为在期货市场中止损是件好事，止损好的人当然好，止损不好的话，他会把一个交易者的心态搞坏，所以我还是注重分析。把基本面分析做好，把资金管理做好，我始终不建议大家频繁止损，频繁止损会把自己心态打乱，在做之前一定想好单子该怎么拿，甚至有时候单子不设止损。

主持人：假设我有1000万的现金，在12500点的时候，我做橡胶的账户大概多少钱合适？

吴洪涛：200万够用了，我经常拿300万或500万在期货市场上操作，做豆粕也好，做橡胶也好，当我遇到一个真正价值点的时候，这300万或500万资金亏损15%或20%甚至更多，但是它已经跌到了一个实质性价值，这让我很兴奋，硬跟着玩。就像打战一样，我有先锋部队，我的300万或500是先锋部队，后面还有1000万等着。

主持人：据你所知，目前全球橡胶种植平均成本大概是多少？

吴洪涛：从2009年到2015年，平均成本应该在10000左右，在个别地区，应该偏高点，在11000点左右，我指的是平均价格。去年人民币贬值15%之后，橡胶价格往上提15%是合理的，因为我们的橡胶主要是进口，所以今年的低点不是10000，应该是11500点或12000点。而我们在接近12500的情况下，可能就有1000点的亏损，最大亏这么多，即使今年出现金融危机，也不会跌太多。

主持人：所以您预估后期橡胶的行情应该要比豆油更大一些，是吗？

吴洪涛：我先看反弹，所有的品种都先看反弹。因为从现在的跌幅来说，想重新超过前期高点的那种涨幅大概需要一年左右的行情， 最少也得将近八个月。我们如果要做转机的话，要先做第一波反弹，看反弹高度，接着再看回调深度，然后再定下一步。不要看得太远，这样会把你的交易定性，当交易定性的时候。所以我们可以先定买点，然后随着市场自己走出来方向和点位做调整，也就是说每次在上涨或者下跌的时候，市场都会给你一点点信号，就看你能都观察到。还有一点就是你的贪心够不够，有可能就3000点的行情你非得看到4000点，那万一走到3000点不往上走了，你说你是平仓不平仓？

主持人：我们打个比方，去年有人从9000点开始做橡胶，有人从15000点开始做，不管怎么样他们做到20000点的时候都很成功了，于是有人开始看到26000点甚至30000点，那么这个时候当盘面出现什么情况的时候多单应该出来？

吴洪涛：这块就是反基本面、反技术面、反市场心理、反技术分析。我基本上全是逆势操作，也就是在基本面绝对看好而且技术指标已经给得非常好的情况下，我第一步是平仓，可能不会直接去做空，而是先等到所有信号都达到一定程度了之后再去做。做空的时候我的仓位都不大，做多的时候仓位大一些，大资金都是喜欢做多的，虽然不是主力但我也要有一个主力的思想，所以在原则上我做空的时候尽量是小仓位，做多是大仓位。

主持人：除了橡胶和豆油，您对2017年其他品种有没有一些想法？

吴洪涛：股票，其他期货品种目前没有什么看法。今年整体来说是消化去年的涨幅，所以说今年的行情并不算大，绝大多数品种以震荡为主，现在来说跌幅最深的就是油脂，主要是油脂里面的豆油、棕榈油其次，然后就是橡胶。如果选一个做多的话，选择豆油更合适一些，也就是它跌幅达到一定程度之后会释放一些风险，但是目前来说我建议豆油只是关注，不能参与，因为它的季节还得往后推一点。当然有的时候你要提前做好布局， 如果你发现一个品种各方面都符合你的预期，不排除可以左侧先加仓。

主持人：除了前面提到的指标，您是否还会自己画线？

吴洪涛：画线会画，主要是画主力位和压力位。

主持人：您盘前盘后会做交易计划吗？

吴洪涛：计划肯定是要做的，有时候我会分析一下基本面，会把对未来行情的预期包括关键价位、主力位、支撑位等画出来，也就是先定好打仗的路线，到什么位置减一下仓，到什么位置加仓，然后随着行情变化可能略微会有一些变动，但是原则上这些变动不大。

主持人：我们进场的时候要尽量去做基本面上安全边际高的品种，是这样吗？

吴洪涛：对，也就是你衡量了之后认为这个风险你能承受得了。通常我是这样，假如我认为下面有1000点的幅度，通过基本面、技术面辨别完之后，我会把1000点变成2000点，按原来的预期放大一倍，然后建仓。比如说我认为13000是底部了，但是到13000之后，我也可以一点点往下。别看我只有10%的仓位，我可能最后的均价比13000还要低，这样去建仓会比较有安全感。在基本面有安全边际的时候是建初步仓位，在技术面有安全边际的时候反向加仓。逆势加仓，仓位原则上激进的不要超过10%。等到行情突破的时候你的基本仓已经获利了，并且它已经突破了一个相对的压力位和主力位，这时候你可以把仓位加起来。

主持人：您刚刚提到了股票，那么您这里指的是股指的机会还是一些股票板块的机会？

吴洪涛：两者均可。 我觉得机会是跌出来的，越跌，风险越释放。

主持人：股指如果进一步下跌,就会有一个做多的机会？

吴洪涛：它现在在3000的位置会有一个反复，反复之后如果再有急跌的话，可以考虑介入，但是我不建议先去碰股指，因为股指这会儿还有杠杆，风险度还比较大，我通常是股票和股指配合着做。风险释放完了我先做股票，因为股票不爆仓，然后等到行情完全启动起来的时候我再做股指。股指进去之后必须得盈利啊，不盈利的话一回撤杠杆加起来风险就大多了。另外，我先通过股票获得利润，然后股市开始完全走牛市的时候做股指风险就小多了。

主持人：如果说这段时间大盘经过一个盘整之后股指又下了一个台阶，我们利用它的急跌去选哪一些版块可能会相对来说安全一点？

吴洪涛：可以注意环保能源类、医疗类等，最好是这些版块里面跌幅最深的，而且业绩还不是太差的，这样的股票你拿起来安全度高。如果你要选择业绩好的，价格偏高的，等它涨起来也不一定能涨多高，反而是那些被杀跌的股票，散户已经被洗的差不多了，这时候你进去就可能跟主力一个战队了。股票不像期货，股票是有固定筹码的，期货可以无限筹码。 我做得话专挑各种冷门，不选择热门。这个市场里面只有少的人赚钱， 当所有人都看热门的东西，这个市场上的机会就已经基本上是消失了。

主持人：我们刚刚说在基本面安全边际较高的时候在左侧建立初步仓位，当价格在技术上突破的时候再加仓位，那么后面技术突破的这部分仓位要不要设止损？

吴洪涛：需要设止损，这部分属于加仓仓位。打个比方，15000点是压力位，突破15000点我们加仓，但是回来打破15000点的情况下，我们必须把仓位减下来，因为这时候行情已经起来了，虽然是底部区间，但是也不排除假行情，继续震荡。很多行情都是反复震荡的，突破新高后下来，下来以后突破新低然后又往上走破新高，来回反复，我们要防备这样的行情。

主持人：最近豆粕期权上市，但是参与的人很少，为什么会出现这种情况？它是否适合普通投资者去参与？

吴洪涛：实际上期权期货是一个非常好的品种，但是对专业性的要求大于期货，包括对数据掌握程度的要求也相对较高。这段时间我一直在做模拟没有做实盘交易，一个感受就是买入期权比较适合散户，因为它是有限风险，无限利润，而且它适合于逆势交易，特别是在你发现一个绝对性的底部的情况下。比方说豆粕去年两千三，经过反复震荡之后，经济下调的时候我们可以做买入看多期权。这时候在跌得不太狠的情况下只要不把保证金跌没就不用追加资金。我认为行情贴近崛起性底部的时候在一定程度上期权是一个很好的东西。

主持人：这是从底部的角度来讲，在顶部有没有可能？

吴洪涛：一般商品的顶部很难把握，如果我们预估是顶部然后去买入看空期权这个操作性难度就比较大。因为要把这个顶部完全确定了之后才可以操作，但是很多商品的顶部是很难确定的，这样的话操作起来就很难了。

主持人：对于期权有些专业人士会做蝶式套利、牛市套利等等，您怎么看？

吴洪涛：这样当然也能赚钱，但是我觉得这样做太累了。同样别人每年赚30%，赚10年，如果我一年就把10年的钱赚完，剩下九年你们还在赚钱我可能已经在晒太阳了。我认为所有的工具你要利用到它最好且最暴利的一面。我始终觉得期货市场上不存在复利，而是存在暴利。

主持人：刚刚也有人再问，棕榈油是不是已经进入到六年的减产周期了？

吴洪涛：六年的时间跨度太大了，比较难解释。棕榈油这块完全是靠进口，中国没有，而且马来西亚包括东南亚关于棕榈油的数据特别乱，真实度不是很强，所以我们就不要把周期看长，最多看半年的就可以了，否则你的格局容易受限。在你认为一个大周期出现的时候，还是先寻找相对安全的临界点比较好。通常我做期货最长看六个月。

主持人：最后，您现在是否有一些特别想和投资者说的话？

吴洪涛：期货可以参与，但是要拿少量钱参与。5万、50万、500万结果都是一样的，只要你赚钱5万可以变成500万，如果你不能够有赚钱的效应，500万也可以变成5万。我不建议大家拿出所有财产去做期货，三五万就可以了，亏了不影响我们的生活，赚了却有可能带来暴利。市场上很多朋友都是几万块钱起家的。另一方面，也就只有这个量的资金，不会给你带来任何压力，你做起来会感到很自由。如果你拿出来的那部分资金会对你产生压力，那就意味着这个量已经超过你所能承受的范围了，这时候一定得把资金往下放。我自己做期货也是这样的，我每年都在出金，虽然曲线图不好看，但是我把钱留下来了。做期货还是要谨慎，我个人建议做期货不要拿超过你总资产的5%去投资。如果你是工薪阶层的话，每次拿去期货操作的资金不要超过三到四个月的工资就可以了。大家要记住一点， 市场不是因为你有钱了才有行情，也不是因为你没钱了就没有行情，市场永远都在。

还有一点，如果你资金在三、五万的话，原则上别做资金管理，做资金管理也没意思，就老老实实等行情，等完行情之后按照资金管理在继续往下估仓，这样一波下来你能赚的淋漓尽致。但是一般小行情就不要轻易去做，学会把大量时间腾出来研究基本面。可能很多人会说自己是散户，研究基本面没时间，这里的关键其实是你是否把自己当散户。于我而言，虽然我是散户，但是我想把自己变成主力，所以一直从主力的角度去思考问题。在市场里面永远是少数人赚钱，多数人亏钱，而且主力永远在赚散户的钱，如果你把自己变成散户的话，那你就成为韭菜了。

很多人说自己做期货做了十几年，我问是赚钱还是亏钱，回答是亏钱，那我只能说十几年的经验都是赔钱的经验，并没有赚钱。也就是说同样是开车，你能开出来赛车的水准吗？开不了。但是如果有一天你去训练自己做赛车手了，你也许就会了。你必须想方设法用少量资金给自己创造3-5倍的收益，这时候你才算有赚钱的经验，当然这个是比较难的，需要身心的锤炼和时间的积累。你别说自己在市场上混了三年，哪怕混了三十年没有赚钱还是白混。

主持人：在这里我个人有一些不一样的想法，您刚刚说的可能是期货市场里面可以用的一种方法，我们也不能排除另外一种方法即每年赚个30%、40%。比如说有人有一个亿，他拿一千万去做，每年赚30%-40%形成一定的复利，这个至少事实证明也有人能做到，对于这点您怎么看？

吴洪涛：我不认可这个事情，首先你是在一个零和游戏场，或者说甚至还不是一个零和游戏场，每年交易所、期货公司以及从业人员要从这个市场上拿走五分之一到四分之一的资金，你每年亏损10%-20%，尚且可以说属于正常亏损。你在复合游戏的市场里面想赚得正收益，那太难了。而且大家回顾一下，在期货市场上20年，有哪个人做到了复利？有可能短时间三五年有，但是十年二十年做不到。 我还是认为这个市场其实是一个给你暴利机会的市场，可能不是每个人都有暴利的机会， 我们要做的是用可控的钱在你相对有把握的点上耐心等待，抓住一波行情。

当然，复利变相来说也是存在的，就像我从2009年开始做私募，第一年5万变成100万，第二年100万变成600万，这时候我把钱拿出来留下100万做期货。以此类推，这么多年虽然有起伏，但是我的收益也产生了复利，不过我不是完全在期货市场得到复利的，而是通过出金的方式实现。你说要每年保证在期货市场赚30%我觉得太难了，我最多做了六年，到了第七年的时候我就亏得很惨。所以我认为，所谓的复利不是资金曲线每天都往上走，而是拿出你身价的5%-10%加上每年赚得钱的5%-10%在期货市场上进行交易，这样你可以把大量的利润留下来。用出金的方法，每次都去抓一波相对大的行情，长期来看可以实现一个复利。当然这些仅为我个人观点，欢迎大家和我探讨。