Analysis of China's Changshu Men's Wear Industry Climate Index in October

First, the men’s wear industry continued to rise in October, but it is still in a recession.

Figure 1 China Changshu men's clothing boom index trend

According to the China Changshu Men's Wear Industry Climate Index (Figure 1), in October 2017, the men's wear industry sentiment index closed at 49.96 points, up 0.54 percentage points from the previous month and up 0.76 percentage points year-on-year.

In the first half of this month, there were a lot of market traffic in the market. Most of them were retail customers who came to the low-end market for the autumn sales promotion. The buyers mainly consulted the winter clothes and started to distribute the goods. The market flow in the middle and late ten days decreased. Because some buyers use the phone or WeChat to place orders to replenish the goods, the number of merchants who come to the market to purchase has decreased.

Judging from the next forecast, Changshu men's wear industry sentiment index will close at 49.87 points, down by 0.09 percentage points from the current period. It is understood that due to factors such as rising raw material prices, winter production is affected, and the pre-sales have been completed, and later enterprises will be produced according to market feedback. Therefore, merchants are less confident in the next market sentiment and are cautious.

Second, October men's production boom situation

January and October men's wear manufacturing continues to show expansion

Figure 2 China Changshu Men's Wear Manufacturing Purchasing Manager (PMI) Index

In October 2017, the menswear manufacturing industry continued to show expansion. The China·Changshu Men’s Wear Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index closed at 52.40 points, up 0.74 percentage points from the previous month and up 1.27 percentage points year-on-year.

From the five indicators of the total production, product order, production and operation personnel, raw material inventory quantity and supplier delivery time limit of the Changshu Men's Purchasing Managers Index (see Table 1), these five indicators are located in the boom zone. It shows that the expansion of the menswear manufacturing industry is significant.

From the market understanding, at this stage, the manufacturers mainly focus on winter production. The total production volume has continued to increase compared with the previous month. The total production prosperity index closed at 52.96 points, up 0.85 percentage points from the previous month. The raw material inventory quantity index closed at 50.68 points, up 0.17 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the company has prepared for the next production plan and the raw materials are adequately stocked. The prosperity index of production and operation personnel closed at 51.23 points, up 0.12 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the number of production and operation personnel was sufficient and increased from the previous month. As the temperature gradually became colder, the order quantity of the products increased, and the product ordering volume index closed at 51.57 points, up 0.75 percentage points from the previous month. This month, the supplier's delivery time limit index closed at 50.10 points, up 0.15 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the delivery speed has increased.

2. The men's production prosperity index is still below the critical point, but the chain ratio has increased year on year.

Figure 3 China Changshu men's wear industry production boom index trend

According to China's Changshu men's wear industry production prosperity index (Figure 3), the men's production boom index in October is still below the critical point, but improved from last month, the prosperity index closed at 49.39 points, up 0.67 percentage points from the previous month. It increased by 0.74 percentage points year-on-year.

3, October men's clothing production prosperity index secondary indicators

Table 1 The rise and fall of the secondary indicators of the men’s production boom index in October

Judging from the economic situation of the sub-indices that constitute the Changshu men's clothing production prosperity index (Table 1), the sales of winter clothing in this month is good, with the product sales index rising by 1.16 percentage points from the previous month; the total production volume and product order quantity index The chain rose by 0.85 percentage points and 0.75 percentage points respectively. The purchase price of raw materials was not satisfactory, and the prices of raw materials continued to rise. Although the index rose slightly by 0.03 percentage points from the previous month, it was still in a recession; the problem of loan default was still severe, with the index falling by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; The intensity of innovation declined slightly from last month, and the index fell by 0.08 percentage points and 0.19 percentage points respectively. Compared with the same period of last year, most of the indicators increased year-on-year. However, due to factors such as rising fabric and labor costs, raw material purchase price, production cost index, raw material purchase quantity, and supplier delivery time limit index decreased. The technology innovation index also declined year on year. Third, the market sentiment index continues to rise Figure 4 China·Changshu Men's Wear Market Boom Index According to the China·Changshu Men's Wear Market Boom Index (Figure 4), the Changshu Men's Wear Market Boom Index closed at 50.54 points, up 0.41 percentage points from the previous month and up 0.80 from the same period last year. percentage point. Among them, the entity business climate index closed at 50.60 points, up 0.62 percentage points from the previous month and up 1.03 percentage points year-on-year. The e-commerce boom index closed at 50.28 points, down 0.41 percentage points from the previous month and down 0.13 percentage points year-on-year, but still in the boom zone. In October, winter clothing entered a good sales period. The prosperity index of the wholesale market and e-commerce was located in the boom zone, indicating that the overall sales of the wholesale market and e-commerce were good. The overall market flow is strong, winter passengers see more single passenger flow, and customers in the northern region have more replenishment orders, this month's winter sales and ordering volume have increased compared with the previous period, the number of customers, average sales price, total sales, Product order quantity, commodity inventory and main supply of goods are in the boom zone.

Editor in charge: Xu Yuehua